President Jacob Zuma could arrive home from China without a job.

Okay, probably not, it’s just wishful thinking right now.

But the battle for top ANC position has begun, and Japanese financial holding company Nomura has given its predictions for who the next president of the ANC, and the country, could be.

Nomura sees two camps in the ANC – the pro-Zuma’s and the reformers. The supporters of our current president make up 60% of the National Executive, and therefore hold the upper hand. BusinessTech explains further:

Nomura does not expect an early elective conference to take place, namely because neither faction within the ANC seems to have met the conditions that would encourage it.

The group says that an early elective conference will only happen only if:

– A faction thinks it can win, and
– That faction can gain the support of five ANC provincial structures (out of nine), for it to occur under the ANC constitution.

“We currently think neither condition is met for either side. The length of time to arrange an elective conference and for branches to nominate attendees etc means it seems unlikely it would occur in Q1 2017 at the earliest,” the group said.

So who is next in line? Well, in conclusion, Nomura believes a president will most likely emerge from the pro-Zuma camp – but today’s protests could change that.

They suspect the top five candidates, in order of popularity, to be:

• Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – Chairperson of the African Union
• Baleka Mbete – Speaker for the National Assembly
• Zweli Mkhize – Treasurer General of the ANC
• Cyril Ramaphosa – Deputy President of South Africa
• Gwede Mantashe – Secretary General of the ANC

What an awful selection.

No matter which candidate wins, Nomura says that it will definitely result in a market positive, but warns against overestimating the potential for reform, which is scary:

Our baseline has been that Zuma would stand down after a 2017 elective conference, maybe in Q1 [Quarter 1] 2018 if his faction wins, to allow them a clean run through to win the 2019 elections.

We could shift Zumxit earlier for an early elective conference. However we still believe Zuma would attempt to stay on for his full term till May 2019 if his faction loses an early elective conference – opening up the risk of a messy recall.

We will just have to wait and see.

[source:businesstech]