There’s good news and there’s bad news here.

The bad news is that the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) has issued travel advice for several countries, including SA, warning of terror attacks this holiday season.

The warning “identifies that the primary “security threat” emanates from South African Islamic State fighters who have returned from Syria, Iraq and Libya”.

Not ideal, but there is something resembling good news here, which is that the Daily Maverick doesn’t think the warning carries much weight, saying that the UK Foreign Office’s statement is “at best vague and begs for accurate contextualisation”.

Well, let’s get contextual:

About 128 South Africans have joined the Islamic State, of which 75 returned to South Africa from the Caliphate. But equating their presence with that of Afghanistan (ISK), Philippines (ISEA), Libya (ISL) and Somalia (Islamic State in Somalia) is a complete oversimplification.

The fighters, relentless in their allegiance to the Islamic State, prefer areas where the group is actively engaged in an insurgency or there are notions of an expanded presence in their countries of origin…

Propaganda material remains geographical, confined to areas regarded as a main enemy (for example the US, EU and of late Australia), where pro-Islamic State groups are engaged in an insurgency, or where regional proximity could allow for expansion. One gets a sense of South Africa in propaganda material as “oh and you too, you’re a target as well” — as a postscript.

Before we go further, let’s check in with the UK Foreign Office and their specific report about South Africa:

The FCO says terrorists are “likely” to carry out attacks in South Africa.

The main threat is from extremists linked to Daesh (formerly referred to as ISIL). The FCO cautions that a number of South African nationals have travelled to Syria, Iraq and Libya and will likely pose a security threat on their return.

“Attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places visited by foreigners such as shopping areas in major cities,” stated the FCO.

Again, the Daily Maverick disagrees with that, to an extent:

South Africa is most likely to be confronted by returning supporters who acknowledged being Islamic State members, but who set out to distance themselves from the group, a trend noteworthy among families. That returning Islamic State supporters have indicated a willingness to be interviewed by the State Security Agency on their return to the country is indicative of such acknowledgement…

South Africa’s vulnerability to terrorism requires factual and in-depth contextualisation. Terrorism threats accentuated by travel warnings relying on vague references contain a far greater risk of creating panic, incorrect prioritisation of national security priorities or a complete disregard of factual realities.

In a nutshell – there will be Islamic State members returning to South Africa these holidays (not ideal), but they’ll mostly be people turning their back on the terrorist organisation.

I suppose you have to take the small wins where you can get them.

[source:dailymav]