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At the time of writing, South Africa has recorded 25 937 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 552 deaths.

On a more positive note, National Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize announced that 13 451 people have recovered from the virus.

Whilst the curve hasn’t been flattened, the strict lockdown measures implemented early on by the government have contained a situation that had the potential to overwhelm our unprepared healthcare sector.

Take a look at the US, for example, to see what happens when a country can’t get it together during a pandemic. As of Wednesday, they’ve passed the 100 000 mark in terms of COVID-19 related deaths.

A number of studies have been brought forth by various research institutions looking into the rates of death versus recovery in South Africa.

A recent research report published by The South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) measured weekly deaths over the course of the lockdown, and compared the numbers to the seasonal trend which used historical data to predict the number of expected deaths in 2020.

The data was used to generate graphs measuring deaths by week across provinces, including natural (age, disease, infection) and unnatural deaths (murder, accidents).

Basic demographic information for all deaths registered on the National Population Register are provided to the SAMRC on a weekly basis.

Since the weekly number of deaths has a seasonal trend, historical data from 2018 and 2019 have been used to predict the number of deaths that could be expected during 2020.

You can see graphs of the weekly number of deaths up until May 19, 2020, based on data received May 25, 2020, below:

Countrywide natural deaths by age group (including, but not limited to, COVID-19 deaths)

Image: The South African Medical Research Council

Image: The South African Medical Research Council

Image: The South African Medical Research Council

The national weekly number of deaths from all causes in all age groups up till May 19, 2020, are recorded to be lower than the number predicted using historical data.

This has a lot to do with a decrease in deaths by unnatural causes like murder and road accident-related deaths, thanks in part to extreme physical distancing measures and the stay at home order.

However, in order to see the effect of the coronavirus, it’s worth looking at weekly deaths from natural causes alone in the Cape Town metro.

The metro has shown the sharpest increase in the week up till May 19, thereby exceeding the expected number of deaths for the last week:

SAMRC’s director of the burden of disease unit, Debbie Bradshaw, said that they are taking this spike as an early signal of the impact of COVID-19.

This from Business Day:

Researchers have been closely monitoring trends in SA’s natural deaths because they are expected to provide the clearest picture of the impact of the pandemic on mortality.

This is because limited testing capacity means official figures may undercount Covid-19 deaths, and there are extensive delays in Stats SA’s publication of data on the underlying causes of death recorded on death certificates.

Stats SA’s detailed report on the underlying causes of deaths in 2017 was only published two months ago.

SAMRC also notes that as the lockdown eases, crime has been on the rise and the rates of unnatural deaths are rising with it.

[sources:samrc&businessday]