[Image: FMT]
How the hell did we get here?
The South African government is worried that its trade with the United States, worth over R100 billion, could be jeopardised by Friday night’s sanctions imposed by US President Donald Trump.
In a significant move, Trump suspended all US aid to South Africa and also expressed a desire to resettle “Afrikaner refugees” in the United States.
While most Afrikaners baulked at the offer, the ANC and the DA believe this may be just the beginning of more severe actions, particularly targeting South Africa’s major trade relations with the US.
One source told City Press that there is a lot of anxiety within the government that the sanctions could extend beyond just aid cuts.
They anticipate that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) – which supports key sectors such as agriculture, automotive, and mining – could be on the chopping block as well.
“Signs are not good Agoa will survive.”
In 2024, South Africa exported goods worth over $6.5 billion (R119 billion) to the US under AGOA. This trade is vital, as the US is South Africa’s second-largest trading partner after China, with total exports exceeding R156 billion.
To address this growing worry, the government is now hoping for talks with the US. Many believe the situation mirrors how Trump ‘resolved’ issues with other major allies like Canada and Mexico, meaning that immediate action was needed to prevent further economic repercussions.
In his recent State of the Nation address, President Cyril Ramaphosa outlined his intention to send delegations to various countries, with the US being a priority.
Behind the scenes, political leaders are urging Ramaphosa to involve opposition party leaders in the discussions. Suggestions have been made to include John Steenhuisen of the DA, Gayton McKenzie of the Patriotic Alliance, and Pieter Groenewald of the Freedom Front Plus in the delegation to present a unified approach.
The biggest reason for the sanctions appears to be the Expropriation Bill signed by Ramaphosa, which has been heavily criticised by Trump and his lackey, Musk.
However, Joel Pollak, a potential US ambassador to South Africa, suggests that the reasons for Trump’s actions extend beyond the bill.
Pollak reckons that South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies have been a “significant factor” in Trump’s decision. He argues that the US is concerned with the corruption associated with these policies and that “the Trump administration cannot tolerate a system that undermines the free market”.
Pollak also highlights other issues that have strained relations between the US and South Africa, such as the country’s growing ties with China.
South Africa’s relationship with China, which includes joint military exercises, signals a disregard for the US as a partner.
Pollak points out that China’s trade practices harm local manufacturing sectors globally and that the country often extends unsustainable loans to African nations, seizing assets when these loans cannot be repaid.
The Trump administration also seems to be miffed by South Africa’s stance against Israel, a key US ally.
“South Africa has taken aggressive positions towards the US and its allies, including accusing Israel, not Hamas, of genocide in the International Court of Justice and reinvigorating its relations with Iran to develop commercial, military and nuclear arrangements.”
Pollak emphasises that Trump has long been aware of the economic and diplomatic challenges in South Africa and that the issue of expropriation is merely “one of several key concerns for both the US government and American investors”.
Like most of the world, South Africa suddenly finds itself under the threat of US sanctions – which could have devastating effects on the country’s economy – and is scrambling to formulate a diplomatic response to salvage the situation.
Unfortunately for most of the countries in US crosshairs, they’ll have to first stroke Trump’s ego if we’re going to survive the next four years. That’s going to be tough as the US president is all over the place and seems to give zero f**ks about what his ‘executive orders’ might mean for the future.
Even Biden’s paper straws kakked this weekend.
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[Source: City Press]
