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South Africans might be catching a break at the petrol pump, but coffee drinkers? Not so much.
While the country’s overall inflation is cooling off, coffee prices are still turning every flat white into a luxury item.
Stats SA just dropped the latest inflation figures, and while headline inflation slid to a five-year low — from 3.2% in February to 2.7% in March 2025 — caffeine addicts are still bleeding out at the till, per BusinessTech.
For context, the last time inflation was this tame was back in June 2020 when we were still sanitising our groceries. That dip was thanks to cheap fuel and chilled tuition hikes, according to Stats SA.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages also showed a modest slowdown, with inflation edging down to 2.7%. But before you break out the champagne (or budget rooibos), not all pantry items are playing nice. Veg, nuts, meat and fish prices climbed, while sweets and cold drinks backed off slightly.
And then there’s coffee, still holding the line like a stubborn old general in a losing war. The hot beverages category saw a small dip, sure, but it’s still burning at 14.4%. Coffee alone was a roasting 18.8% in March. That’s after a blistering 19% in February. It’s less “morning pick-me-up” and more “financial gut-punch”.
For perspective: hot beverage inflation has been in double digits in 27 of the last 32 months. That’s not a trend. That’s a lifestyle.
Why is your cappuccino eating your budget alive? Well, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) spilt the beans – global coffee prices surged 38.8% in 2024, and there’s no sign of them cooling down.
Roasters are already hiking prices by up to 30%, and experts say we should brace for more price pain.
The FAO report blames a nasty cocktail of chaos: Vietnam’s dry spell slashed production by 20%, Indonesia got drenched and saw a 16.5% drop, and Brazil, one of the planet’s coffee powerhouses, had a bad run with the weather. With Brazil and Vietnam making up nearly half of the world’s supply, these hits matter – a lot.
Throw in global shipping disruptions and a potential escalation in US trade tantrums, and suddenly, your espresso habit looks like an investment strategy gone wrong.
Local roaster Quaffee isn’t sugar-coating it either. They backed the FAO’s findings and pointed to a growing list of headaches driving South African coffee prices into the stratosphere. Think supply shortages, rising production costs (hello fertiliser and wages), a ravenous global middle class – especially in China – and a twitchy rand that can’t decide whether it wants to behave.
Quaffee added, “Coffee is traded in US dollars,” and when the dollar struts around like it owns the place, weaker currencies (like the rand) get clobbered. That’s bad news for importers. Worse news for your wallet.
But wait, there’s more doom in the brew. Quaffee flagged structural issues, the kind of problems you can’t fix overnight. Ageing coffee trees are running out of steam. Farmers are calling it quits. Young people don’t give a damn. And, of course, the climate crisis is turning coffee-growing regions into unrecognisable, unpredictable landscapes.
“Climate shifts are making coffee cultivation more challenging, as coffee plants are sensitive to temperature and rainfall changes. This has reduced productivity in traditional growing regions,” said Quaffee.
With all these grenades going off in the global coffee pipeline, roasteries like Quaffee are left with little choice but to pass the pain on.
“Whenever the cost of raw materials increases, the price of the final product must also rise. For us, the final product is coffee beans,” they said.
“At Quaffee, we have endured significant price increases over the past 8 months, and we’ve reached a tipping point.”
Translation: brace yourself. Quaffee says the cost of raw coffee and consumables has spiked by between 40% and 70%. They’ve already pushed up prices by 20% to 30% since the end of February, and if things keep going sideways, another hike is likely on the way.
So, the next time your barista calls out your order, relish in the current prices of your morning fix because who knows what you’re going to have to fork out in the near future.
[Source: BusinessTech]
