Thankfully, after tomorrow, none of the polls matter, and South Africa’s votes can be tallied.
Last week, the Daily Maverick covered the final Ipsos poll results, which showed the ANC just about cracking the 60% mark nationally.
Whilst those figures come from what many consider to be the most reliable polling numbers, there are plenty of others flying about – including those from the Institute for Race Relations (IRR).
According to its final poll results, taken over the weekend, the ANC won’t fare anywhere near as well nationally.
Below from the Daily Maverick once more:
The think-tank says the ANC will win 53% and the DA 24% nationally which will mean that the governing party will reduce support and the DA will grow very slightly from its 2014 outcome of 22,23%. The IRR poll is a counter-factual one in that it turns up lower results for the ANC and higher outcomes for the EFF than three other polls do. Its results are based on a respondent pool of about 2,200 people, all registered voters.
That’s based on a 70% turnout model.
The IRR poll suggests the ANC will get only 45% of votes in Wednesday’s election in Gauteng – this is against the ANC’s own poll of 3,200 respondents which has found that it will win a majority of between 53% and 56% in the country’s economic heartland. The DA gets 26% in Gauteng in the poll released on Monday, suggesting that the official opposition party is unlikely to meet its key goal of the campaign – to be the biggest party in the province and to be able to form a government.
It should be noted that the poll is run by Victory Research, which just happens to be owned by the DA’s former general election campaign chief, Ryan Coetzee.
The IRR’s head of politics and governance, Gareth van Onselen, has called this “the most fluid national election to date”, with poll numbers changing quite drastically in a matter of days.
As for the Western Cape:
In the Western Cape, other polls suggest the DA is fighting to achieve a majority in the provincial election, but the IRR says it will romp to a comfortable victory.
While the party started at a 51% outcome in the IRR’s April poll in the only province it governs, by the time the researchers put down the phone on their final respondent, the party was polling for a 54% win.
“This is what an effective squeeze looks like,” said Van Onselen who said the DA’s tactics to push up support amongst the coloured majority in the province was working.
I’m not sure the party itself is feeling as comfortable, admitting earlier in the week that a win would only happen if there was a high voter turnout.
In other words, if you’re one of those people worried about the ANC taking control of the Western Cape, it’s time to shut up and vote.
Before we go, let’s unpack the different methodology behind the Ipsos and IRR polls:
The IRR has stressed its survey is not a prediction and that its outcome is not absolutely definitive; it has assumed a voter turnout of 70%. The difference between the IRR poll and the Ipsos polls are the following: the IRR respondent pool is representative but smaller; the IRR poll polls people by mobile phone numbers while Ipsos polls in face-to-face interviews using mock ballots.
And now we wait for the slew of photos of people’s thumbs (voting for likes on social media is peak 2019), and the final results.
Good luck out there, friends.
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